Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.823351 1.903472 1.987846 2.083802 2.190519 2.306300 2.442446
2025-11-23 1.724446 1.827343 1.939459 2.071963 2.226045 2.401908 2.621448
2025-11-30 1.667260 1.786499 1.919813 2.082188 2.278005 2.511419 2.819051
2025-12-07 1.588632 1.714028 1.856510 2.033453 2.252055 2.520533 2.888509
2025-12-14 1.541644 1.674343 1.827497 2.021362 2.266778 2.577697 3.022293
2025-12-21 1.496752 1.634167 1.794771 2.001272 2.268068 2.615236 3.130874
2025-12-28 1.477709 1.623309 1.796011 2.022261 2.321952 2.725277 3.354964
2026-01-04 1.465843 1.620044 1.805654 2.053465 2.390323 2.860359 3.636773
2026-01-11 1.438687 1.596601 1.788605 2.048367 2.408048 2.923439 3.812601
2026-01-18 1.417912 1.580056 1.779216 2.052323 2.437805 3.006052 4.035101
2026-01-25 1.381727 1.542938 1.741973 2.016798 2.408580 2.994842 4.085117
2026-02-01 1.358646 1.521566 1.724162 2.006638 2.415080 3.039721 4.248568
2026-02-08 1.336229 1.501087 1.707675 1.998762 2.426251 3.096161 4.454311
2026-02-15 1.314434 1.480656 1.690386 1.988716 2.433108 3.145559 4.656992
2026-02-22 1.301882 1.471579 1.687557 1.998512 2.470321 3.249989 5.012440
2026-03-01 1.269316 1.435745 1.647930 1.954161 2.420532 3.196024 4.972898
2026-03-08 1.250972 1.417965 1.631999 1.943221 2.422723 3.235870 5.182632
2026-03-15 1.230790 1.397290 1.611546 1.924866 2.411913 3.250596 5.331088
2026-03-22 1.225372 1.395761 1.616882 1.944180 2.462820 3.386635 5.876657
2026-03-29 1.223480 1.398736 1.628319 1.972815 2.530891 3.565787 6.673945
2026-04-05 1.210211 1.386224 1.617940 1.968162 2.542304 3.631035 7.121311
2026-04-12 1.200329 1.377984 1.613215 1.971797 2.568043 3.729946 7.787885
2026-04-19 1.178814 1.353714 1.585488 1.939230 2.528630 3.681776 7.762328